Diffusion of digital technologies in the face of external shocks: The case of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper investigates the impact of external shocks on the spread of digital technologies. Using the example of the COVID-19 pandemic, we identify and describe four patterns that reflect the uneven response of different digital technologies to external conditions undergoing transformation. The patterns differ in both the magnitude of the pandemic's impact and the timing of the resulting effects. Video conferencing, business continuity and telemedicine services showed a dramatic increase in demand at the beginning of COVID-19 and a gradual decline in the later stages. A more moderate response in the early weeks of the pandemic is typical of e-commerce and online entertainment. Delayed effects are seen in digital logistics services and digital currencies, which reacted much later than other technologies. Finally, a slow decline in significance after the pandemic began has been observed for biometrics and cybersecurity technologies. Similar patterns may describe the transformation of the spread of digital technologies not only under the influence of COVID-19, but also in the face of dramatic economic and social changes of other origins. © 2023 The Author(s).

Covid-19 disruption, resilience and industrial policy: the automotive sector in the West Midlands

The Covid-19 pandemic and Brexit have focused attention on the resilience of key sectors and firms. This paper explores the financial resilience of the 50 largest automotive firms in the West Midlands region of the UK in their response to disruption and economic shocks. The findings demonstrate that 22 firms are at high risk due to poor current liquidity ratios, with Coventry and Birmingham emerging as locations most susceptible to firm closures. High-risk firms include key flagship original equipment manufacturers operating at the downstream end of supply chains. If these firms were to fail, there would be a significant destructive impact on both the industry and the local economy. We assert an effective subnational industrial policy is required in order to support economic resilience in regions such as the West Midlands where a few firms account for a disproportionate share of employment and value-added.

An Introduction to Biopolitics and Shock Economy of COVID-19: Medical Perspectives and Socioeconomic Dynamics

This edited volume on the biopolitics and shock economy of COVID-19 crisis embraces a wide spectrum of topics such as shock economy, medical perspectives on COVID-19, application of geospatial technology, infectivity, immunity, and severity of the disease, as well as ontology of the disease emergence as important factors for adoption of relevant biopolitical measures, sociocultural obstacles, COVID-19-induced transaction costs, social support and resilience of inhabitants of marginalized areas, as well as business resilience factors, entrepreneurship, and digital transformation. Through each chapter of this book, the authors, with their expertise in the theme they picked, have attempted to unfold some emerging aspects in the COVID-19 crisis which could benefit not only the academics but also the institutional, social, economic, developmental, and health policy-makers as well as the health practitioners on the ground. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Savings groups and the COVID-19 pandemic in Zimbabwe: Critical assessment of the informal social protection scheme

The COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged nations and people's lives throughout the globe across multiple dimensions. Measures to curtail the spread of the disease in Zimbabwe have stifled the capacity of the majority of the population, relegated to the informal sector, to source a living. In the absence of robust social protection interventions from the state, these measures pose a more immediate threat to the lives of marginalised and vulnerable communities than the pandemic itself. Savings groups (SGs), which have providedfinancial relief andprotection from economic shocks and stressors to such population groups, have been entrapped by the preventive and containment measures employed by the Zimbabwean authorities. It is unclear how and to what degree such conditions leave underserved populations exposed to socioeconomic shocks as such vital informal social protection alternatives have been rendered ineffectual. Using documentary review, this study examines the fate of SGs in such socially restricted and economically debilitating circumstances. In addition, the authors discuss strategies for improving the sustainability of such grassroots micro-finance initiatives under COVID-19 induced contraptions. Programmatic andpolicy measures necessary for retaining and protecting the viability of (SGs) as alternatives for informal social protection for marginalised and vulnerable groups under COVID-19 are advanced.

Shocks, resilience and regional industry policy: Brexit and the automotive sector in two Midlands regions

This article draws upon novel survey evidence to examine the possible regional impacts of Brexit as a ‘disruptive process' to manufacturing operations and logistics in the automotive industry, in the context of the regional resilience literature. The current Brexit (and Covid-19) context, along with the sector's need to re-orientate towards electrification, provides renewed urgency to reconsider industrial policy in spatial terms. The findings have salience not only in the context of anticipating and reacting to Brexit-induced economic shocks at a regional level, but also over the role of decentralized regional bodies. In this regard, the UK government's agenda of ‘levelling up' will be challenging, especially in the context of the place-based shocks likely to arise from Brexit as well as the impact of Covid-19. The article concludes that a more place-based regional industrial policy is required both to anticipate and to respond to shocks and also to reposition the sector in the region going forward.

Economic Shock Transmission through Global Value Chains: An Assessment using Network Analysis

This paper examines the role of some key economies in the economic contagion across global value chains using input-output analysis and complex network statistics. The empirical research focuses on China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States. A range of novel measures were used to measure the nature and extent of global value chain relationships. The empirical results reveal that, because of the high interdependence and interconnectedness in the global value chain networks, the transmission of an economic shock in China and the United States will be fast, wide, and in-depth in the global value chain networks. Sample countries are more exposed to an economic shock in China than a shock in the other four big economic partners, namely the United States, Germany, Japan, and Korea.

COVID-19 IN AFRICA: AN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INTERPRETATION (2019-2022)

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a lot of challenges to the globalized world. Globally, it has decimated over six million lives. Since 2019, it has shook the world in many respects, especially, it disrupted economies and societies and halted the majority of human endeavor. Commentaries and reports from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the media showed an alarming situation that could be damning in low and middle income countries. Economic pundits and global public health experts also anticipated doom and gloom for African countries. However, in terms of mortality, the Americas, Europe and Asia have suffered more losses. Irrespective of these loses in Europe, Africa's case needs better appreciation within our contemporary historical discourse. The burgeoning challenge of the COVID disease and mortalities arising thereby, among other things, necessitated the introduction of policies based on the WHO's historical understanding of how the world has dealt with pandemics in the past. Some of the strategies that were deployed to fight the pandemic included hand washing under running water with soap, the use of alcohol based hand sanitizers, the wearing of nose masks, social distancing, self-isolation as well as partial and complete lockdowns of states and communities. The major economic disruption really came about as a result of many lockdown policies that were implemented by several countries in Africa without proper reference to their own societal contexts. These issues notwithstanding, it is important to emphasize that the extent of the impact on different communities differed to a large extent, even though there were similar levels of the nature of the infection and the general economic outlook among the global community. This current contribution on the COVID-19 discourse used political economy and economic shock as bases to highlight the extent of the impact of the disease by highlighting examples from respective countries in Africa, namely, Ghana, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Algeria and South Africa. In particular, the impact of policies like lock-down on some of these African countries are highlighted for further discussions in future empirical research. The study relied on contemporary historical evidence from multidisciplinary sources on health, economics, policy, and other related studies on epidemiology, public health, health education and promotion, reports and sources from the World Health Organization (WHO). Specifically, the authors have used published research in Lancet, the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, BMJ Global Health, Frontiers in Public Health and the Pan African Medical Journal. The others were African Development Review, Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, Africa Spectrum and International Journal of Financial Research including several other empirical researches. In attempting a social and economic interpretation based on contemporary historical sense, the findings of this present study suggest that African political actors or leaders should make persistent or steady efforts to strengthen the economies of their states to lessen economic shocks and social costs that come about as a result of pandemics such as the COVID-19. It also identified the fact that within the globalized space, application of policies from other countries including international organizations should not be devoid of context. © 2022, Centar za istrazivanje moderne i savremene historije Tuzla. All rights reserved.

HOW COULD ECUADORIAN FIRMS SURVIVE TO THE PANDEMIC? INNNOVATING

The pandemic of Covid-19 has caused the biggest shock in the economy since the Second World War. In this paper, we studied we study what conditioned the capability of the companies in Quito, Ecuador, to continuous operating in the new Covid-19 reality. The hypothesis remains that innovative firms have a greater capacity to adapt to the pandemic. We apply a probabilistic and ordinary least squares model. We use the data of a survey built to 1,730 SMEs in Quito between April and May of 202. We confirm that the probability to continuous operating number of the companies in Quito was related to the innovations developed after the pandemic started. We also explore the role of innovation is contrasted, both by diversity and typology. This paper contributes to the idea that innovation is fundamental to the future of the firms also in a little innovative country. © 2023,Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies. All Rights Reserved.

CHALLENGES EXPERIENCED BY FEMALE HEADED HOUSEHOLDS IN UTILISING CASH TRANSFERS: CASE OF ZVISHAVANE, ZIMBABWE

The Adventist Development and Relief Agency- Zimbabwe (ADRAZimbabwe) is one of the non-governmental organizations that has been conducting a cash transfer programme to help alleviate poverty in Zvishavane District, Zimbabwe. The unexpected Covid-19 outbreak posed significant socio-economic shocks on female headed households, further exacerbated by a crippling state support for vulnerable groups. The objective of the study was to explore the challenges faced by female headed households in the Basic Agricultural Assistance, a cash transfer programme in Zvishavane, Zimbabwe. In-depth and Focus group discussions were used to gather data on the challenges that women face in the cash transfer program. Findings indicated that although the Basic Agricultural Assistance programme was introduced as a micro economic stability tool to buffer income risks faced by the poor, external factors like the political and economic crises have deterred the cash program to comprehensively reduce poverty in female-headed households. The constraining cultural and patriarchal norms deterred most women in achieving autonomy. Furthermore, cash transfers only targeted a portion of the female-headed households. Most of these women experienced difficulty in accessing markets to purchase farm implements amidst the Covid-19 pandemic. This paper recommends that the Basic Agriculture Assistance Programme should consider grassroots approaches in project initiation and implementation. In other words, the beneficiaries themselves should be consulted and should have a say on projects to be initiated in their communities and these projects should be line with their needs.

Maintaining the stability of the housing market in the event of an economic shock

PurposeThis paper aims to identify the economic stimulus measures that ensure stability of the Lithuanian housing market in the event of an economic shock.Design/methodology/approachThe econometric analysis includes stationarity test, Granger causality test, correlation analysis, autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration analysis using ARDL bounds testing.FindingsThe econometric modelling reveals that the housing price in Lithuania correlates with quarterly changes in the gross domestic product and approves that the cycles of the real estate market are related to the economic cycles. Economic stimulus measures should mainly focus on stabilizing the economics, preserving the cash and deposits of households, as well as consumer spending in the case of economic shock.Originality ValueThis study is beneficial for policy makers to make decisions to maintain stability in the housing market in the event of any economic shock.

‘With agroecology, we can defend ourselves': examining campesino resilience and economic solidarity during pandemic-era economic shock in Guatemala

The global spread of Covid-19 led to travel and market restrictions that impacted Guatemala's rural food systems. This distinct economic shock directly affected campesinos, or small-scale farmers who depend on subsistence and commercial food production. Some Guatemalan farmer organizations have been promoting agroecology for decades in efforts to strengthen rural livelihoods and food sovereignty, defend Indigenous rights, and adapt to climate change, and agroecology is positioned as a tool for resilience to various shocks. We consider the neoliberal cooptation of the concept of resilience, and its usefulness in preserving alternative and previous (Indigenous) practices. Data from surveys and semi-structured interviews with farmers and leaders at eight organizations that promote agroecology suggests that prior engagement with a farmer organization, enacted through both agroecological practices and social networks, contributes to campesino resilience to the pandemic's economic shock at the farm level, with regards to production and consumption. This study illustrates the range and diversity of strategies taken up by campesinos during the pandemic, and considers the importance of social networks for collective actions that increase current and future economic solidarity in campesino communities.

Financial hardship and depression experienced by pre-retirees during the COVID-19 pandemic: the mitigating role of stimulus payments

This study examines the association between financial hardship and depression among pre-retirees (ages 50 to 65) using the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and its 2020 COVID-19 supplement. We find a negative association between the amount of stimulus received and financial hardship experienced by respondents during the pandemic. Additionally, the results indicate that African American households were less likely to increase spending, Hispanic households were more likely to increase savings, and households with lower educational attainment were more likely to pay down debt using their stimulus money. Financial wealth was negatively associated with the perception of feeling depressed. Overall, the findings from this study underscore the important role that the stimulus checks and other financial resources played in buffering the economic shock experienced by American households during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Adult life-course trajectories of psychological distress and economic outcomes in midlife during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts.

PURPOSE: Financial adversity in times of economic recession have been shown to have an unequal effect on individuals with prior mental health problems. This study investigated the relationship between mental health groupings across the adult life-course and change in financial situation and employment status during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the use of financial measures to mitigate the economic shock. METHODS: Using two nationally representative British birth cohorts, the National Child Development Study (1958) n = 17,415 and 1970 British Cohort Study n = 17,198, we identified 5 different life-course trajectories of psychological distress from adolescence to midlife which were similar but not identical across the two cohorts. We explored their relation to changes in financial and employment circumstances at different stages during the pandemic from May 2020 to March 2021, applying multinomial logistic regression and controlling for numerous early life covariates, including family socio-economic status (SES). In addition, we ran modified Poisson models with robust standard errors to identify whether different mental health trajectories were supported by government and used other methods to mitigate their financial situation. RESULTS: We found that the financial circumstances of pre-pandemic trajectories of psychological distress with differential onset, severity, and chronicity across the life-course were exacerbated by the COVID-19 economic shock. The 'stable-high' (persistent severe symptoms) and 'adult-onset' (symptoms developing in 30s, but later decreasing) groups were vulnerable to job loss. Compared to pre-pandemic trajectory groupings with no, minor, or psychological distress symptoms in early adulthood, the 'stable-high', 'midlife-onset' (symptoms developing in midlife), and 'adult-onset' trajectory groups were more likely to seek support from the UK governments economic response package. However, trajectories with pre-pandemic psychological distress were also at greater risk of reducing consumption, dis-saving, relying on increased financial help from family and friends, and also taking payment holidays (agreements with lenders to pause mortgage, credit card or loan payments for a set period) and borrowing. CONCLUSION: This work highlights different trajectories of pre-pandemic psychological distress, compared to groups with no symptoms were more vulnerable to pandemic-related economic shock and job loss. By adopting unsustainable mitigating measures (borrowing and payment holidays) to support their financial circumstances during COVID-19, these mental health trajectories are at even more risk of lasting adverse impacts and future economic difficulties.

Has previous loan rejection scarred firms from applying for loans during Covid-19?

The concept of the ‘discouraged’ borrower is well documented. In this paper, we consider whether smaller firms in the UK who have been previously rejected for bank loans have been scarred by the experience so badly that even in the presence of two exceptionally generous Covid-19 loan guarantee schemes, they still refuse to make an application. Furthermore, we also consider what happens when they do. As banks have either zero or minimal loss exposure, do they still maintain their normal strict lending protocols or do they relax their standards to fulfil the governments’ objective of supporting struggling businesses through the crisis? Our findings show that 72% of previously rejected borrowers are reluctant to request loans. We find some evidence that previously scarred firms faced such severe liquidity problems that they relaxed their distrust of banks during the Covid-19 crisis. However, their share of the government-guaranteed loan portfolio was slightly lower suggesting that banks were treating each new loan application on its merits.Plain English SummaryThe Covid-19 crisis hit smaller businesses so hard that even previously rejected borrowers were forced to apply for loans to keep them afloat. Previous loan rejections have not discouraged small businesses in the UK in applying for Covid-19 government-guaranteed loans. Banks have used the loan guarantee schemes to continue to supply loans to small business during the pandemic. Our paper analyses the important phenomenon of borrower scarring and discouragement, when potential debtors are self-excluded from the lending market because they have previous rejections or expect a negative bank response. We consider around 45,000 UK small businesses from 2018 to 2020. On the demand side, we find that the economic shock for small businesses during the pandemic dissipates the scarring effect. Specifically, we find that micro and small businesses had the highest loan demand in the first two quarters of the pandemic (from March 2020). On the supply side, we show that scarred borrowers were not routed onto Covid-19 government-guaranteed loan schemes. These findings show the importance of government-backed lending schemes for small businesses during crisis period.

‘With agroecology, we can defend ourselves’: examining campesino resilience and economic solidarity during pandemic-era economic shock in Guatemala

The global spread of Covid-19 led to travel and market restrictions that impacted Guatemala’s rural food systems. This distinct economic shock directly affected campesinos, or small-scale farmers who depend on subsistence and commercial food production. Some Guatemalan farmer organizations have been promoting agroecology for decades in efforts to strengthen rural livelihoods and food sovereignty, defend Indigenous rights, and adapt to climate change, and agroecology is positioned as a tool for resilience to various shocks. We consider the neoliberal cooptation of the concept of resilience, and its usefulness in preserving alternative and previous (Indigenous) practices. Data from surveys and semi-structured interviews with farmers and leaders at eight organizations that promote agroecology suggests that prior engagement with a farmer organization, enacted through both agroecological practices and social networks, contributes to campesino resilience to the pandemic’s economic shock at the farm level, with regards to production and consumption. This study illustrates the range and diversity of strategies taken up by campesinos during the pandemic, and considers the importance of social networks for collective actions that increase current and future economic solidarity in campesino communities. [ FROM AUTHOR]

The Impacts of COVID-19 Shock on Intergenerational Income Mobility: Evidence from China.

The COVID-19 crisis has caused a huge negative shock to economic activities worldwide, leading to a reduction in income and changes in income distribution. Intergenerational mobility is an important indicator of sustainable social development. This paper explores the short-term impacts of the sudden COVID-19 pandemic on intergenerational income mobility and personal income in China. Using the variation in the number of confirmed cases across provinces, we construct a province-level pandemic intensity index and combine it with individual data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). We apply a general difference-in-difference strategy to identify the causal effect of the pandemic on intergenerational income mobility. We find that personal income is positively related to parental income, and that the COVID-19 crisis has caused a decline in individual income and exacerbated intergenerational income persistence. A more intense COVID-19 pandemic shock is associated with a larger increase in intergenerational income elasticity and intergenerational income rank-rank slope. We found that with one standard deviation increase in local pandemic intensity, the intergenerational income elasticity increases by 0.315 and the intergenerational income rank-rank slope increases by 0.198 on average. The mechanism testing suggests that heterogeneous effects among different groups are the force underlying the results. Low-income, low-skilled, and low-parental-income individuals have suffered a more severe impact from the pandemic shock.

Joan Monras discussion of: Unsafe jobs

While some economic shocks affect different individuals in similar ways, most affect individuals very differently. A good example of this is how Covid-19 affected different types of workers. For workers who could work from home, the effects of Covid-19 were mild. This is for two reasons. First, their exposure to Covid-19 was low, given that they could reduce social interactions to low levels. Second, they could continue working and hence, their incomes also were likely to remain at similar levels, particularly if they were employed in essential sectors, that is, those that were not affected by policy mandates to shut-down production.

The impact of social cohesion on stock market resilience: Evidence from COVID-19

We investigate whether cultural tightness, the strength of social norms, provides stock markets with resilience to external shocks. There is tension in forming expectations regarding this. One reasoning, particularly following from cultural archaeology literature, is that societies best cope with challenges, disaster recovery, and loss when they are culturally comfortable with transformation, with cultural tightness arguably opposed to cultural change. On the other hand, alternative reasoning is that tightness allows for societal cohesion that supports optimism to function in a unified way to confront challenge. We test whether markets were supported by cultural tightness during COVID-19 adversity. In accordance with the latter view, we evidence that stock market volatilities during COVID-19 were significantly lower in countries with ‘tighter’ cultures.

Russian-Ukrainian War, Innovation, Creative Imitation & Sustainable Development

The Russian-Ukrainian war shows a rapidly (and a long-term, probably) worsening outlook for the world economy, that will change specifically the European sustainable development. In addition to COVID-19's tremendous impact on global economies, the Russian-Ukrainian war is producing a new major economic shock, pushing the biggest global corporations towards an outburst of the basic drivers of global capitalism: Health;Energy;Food;Communication. In the current state of play of market globalisation (Network Globalisation), a company's profit and development objectives are induced to target R&D spending on innovation policies in which the boundaries between imitation and innovation are fluid, and anyway dominated by shortage management policies.

The Journey: Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis

When the COVID-19 disease became a pandemic in Winter/Spring 2020 and one country after the other installed far-reaching lockdowns, it soon became clear that this was a crisis never experienced so far for all parts of our life. This was the starting point of this book. The authors of this chapter and editors of the book point to the unprecedented challenges regarding the economy, democracy, (mental) health, and social life and outline what happened in the years 2020–2022 till the publication of the book. The most fundamental perception that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic and that is reflected in other chapters is that we live in an era of predictable unpredictability. The most important challenge for the future is how to make societies and the economies resilient to crisis yet to come. This chapter points to entrepreneurs as solution leaders. In a time of great uncertainty entrepreneurs are the ones who are used to live with great uncertainty and take the challenge to look for solutions. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.